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Two days remaining.

The English side's first Test in Australia starts on the morning of Friday.

With the help of CricViz, we explore where the most eagerly-anticipated Ashes series in years could be determined.

It’s challenging to make runs, right?

Batters on both teams of the Ashes rivalry might be questioning why they are bothering to show up.

Much of the build-up has focused on the apparent challenge of scoring runs, especially for the opening match on a Perth pitch labeled a "green monster".

Regarding batting in Australia, especially against pace bowling, no country has been more difficult in which to accumulate runs over the past five years.

Two key factors for this: wickets and cricket balls.

Overall, the surfaces prepared in Australia have been shown to be the quickest, most bouncy and among the least predictable in the world.

Pace and inconsistent bounce are the perfect recipe for tough batting.

A long-standing narrative from English cricket paints the Kookaburra cricket ball used in this country as a useless tool for a pace bowler.

A new version of the Kookaburra was rolled out six years ago, resulting in more seam movement.

Seam bowling is a more significant asset than swing in Australian conditions.

After the new ball's introduction, fast bowlers are averaging 25 runs per wicket in Australia.

Test cricket is about problem solving.

When bowlers dominate, batsmen's contributions can be the difference, and vice-versa.

If this Ashes be dominated by the ball, a batsman could have the opportunity to be the difference between the two teams.

What’s happening with the Australian pace attack?

For once, England have toured Australia with their pace attack largely intact, while the home side are the ones hit by injuries.

Captain Pat Cummins will be absent for the opening match with a back injury, and Josh Hazlewood is on the sidelines for an unspecified time because of a hamstring problem.

Cummins, Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc were first paired as a three-pronged attack for the 2017-18 Ashes.

Since then, they have taken together 81% of the dismissals taken by Australia pace bowlers in matches in Australia.

Australia have seldom needed alternatives because of the effectiveness and durability of the 'big three'.

When Australia have required support, Boland has been outstanding, taking 62 dismissals in 14 matches at an average under 17.

Aside from Scott Boland, other bowlers of the backup squad have stepped up.

Neser, Richardson and James Pattinson all average under 30 in domestic Tests.

The last time Australia entered a home Test without Cummins and Hazlewood, and lost, was in the year 2012.

On the last two occasions they have played at home without the pair, they have triumphed by a combined 694 runs, featuring a win against England in the Adelaide Test four years ago.

On the rare occasions Australia have had to go past their superstar pacemen, results have remained strong – The tourists should take heed.

Challenging Openings

Remember when England struggled to identify an opener to partner Alastair Cook?

Sir Chef changed partners faster than Watford change coaches.

No more.

Ever since Duckett and Crawley were united at the top of the England order at the close of 2022, no opening pair in the world has produced more runs together.

Their success as a partnership has been a reason in Crawley being backed through some patchy form.

The Kent man, who famously struck the first ball of the last Ashes series for a boundary, has also been recognized as having the technique for Australia.

His batting average rises when the pace increases.

In comparison, the Australian opening lineup is in a ongoing change, yet to fill the gap left by David Warner.

After Warner's departure at the start of 2024, Usman Khawaja has walked out with five different partners in 15 Tests.

Uncapped Weatherald appears likely to become the sixth opener in 16 Tests on the opening day, giving Australia an left-handed opening combo.

It's not only the openers that has posed issues for Australia.

Labuschagne, Australia's regular number three, was moved to open for the WTC final, then dropped entirely.

Home performances has earned him a recall, most likely back at three.

In seven Tests in 2025, Australia's top three have a combined average of 25.37.

Only the opening trios of Zimbabwe and West Indies have performed worse.

Spin war

Between two closely matched sides, there is a single department where Australia are clearly stronger – spin bowling.

Australia's Nathan Lyon, with 562 Test wickets of him, is among the best finger-spinners to play the game.

Shoaib Bashir of England is a somewhat successful selection punt, looking short of form after a finger injury, while Jacks is primarily a batter.

It makes sense for the home team to want Nathan Lyon at the forefront, but bowling spin has been incredibly hard work in Australia for the past 10 years.

During that period, spinners have averaged nearly 44 in this country, albeit Lyon's record largely stands up compared to the struggles of visiting tweakers.

Lyon's other issue is actually bowling enough overs.

Remember the effectiveness of fast bowling?

It limits the time Lyon has with the ball.

During the 2017-18 series here, Nathan Lyon was averaging 50 overs per Test.

Last year, in five Tests against India, it was only half as many.

Tests in Australia are lasting about 25% less time since the updated ball was brought in, meaning the spinner has less space to influence the game.

Favorable Conditions?

The English team have a depressing habit of being beaten in an away Ashes before Santa Claus has loaded his sleigh.

The series traditionally started in the Gabba, where they have not won since 1986.

In recent times, that has been followed with a day-night Test in Adelaide.

England have one win in seven day-night matches worldwide, while Australia have triumphed in 13 out of 14.

Then on to Perth, a venue England have visited on 14 occasions since 1970 and emerged victorious only once, against a depleted Australia in 1978.

This time, the first three stops on the itinerary are the identical, only in a different order and under different circumstances.

Perth stages an series opener for the first occasion, not at the fabled Waca – scene of many an England humbling – but the shiny new Perth Stadium.

It remains a tough assignment, though one the visitors tackle with no historical baggage.

Brisbane is the venue for the second Test, the day-nighter.

The last time Australia played a pink-ball Test at the Gabba, they were surprised by West Indies.

Similarly, the Aussies are now unaccustomed to playing day matches at the typical floodlit ground Adelaide.

In the two red-ball matches played in the City of Churches since 2014, Australia lost one, to the Indian team, in 2018.

The revised fixture list gives England a fresh attempt at starting an away Ashes well, albeit with pitfalls.

Australia have won four out of five matches played at Perth Stadium, though the single loss came in the most recent match – against India last year.

Every Test at the new ground has been won by the team batting first.

England often overthink day-night matches, when data suggest the pink cricket ball does not perform much differently from its red counterpart.

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