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Elections are now in progress for general elections in Holland, with recent surveys suggesting that the anti-immigration firebrand Geert Wilders and his PVV party could once again win the most seats, though analysts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Polling Trends and Political Landscape

Wilders' party, which in the last election achieved a shock top result and established a multi-party right-leaning government that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in surveys and is forecast to secure between 24 and 28 seats in the 150-member parliament.

However, the far-right party's popularity has declined since 2023, when it won 37 seats. All major parties have publicly ruled out entering into a coalition with Wilders, and who precipitated the collapse of the previous government in June amid a dispute concerning his radical anti-refugee proposals.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by topics such as migration, medical expenses, and the country's acute housing shortage, the left-leaning Green Left/Labour party alliance, led by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is running a close second, projected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also performing well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, predicted to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21 to 25 seats, while the right-leaning Christian Democrats (CDA) is anticipated to more than double its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the PVV, VVD, BBB, and NSC – are all forecast to see their representation reduced, with several experiencing significant declines.

Electoral System and Fragmentation

Under the proportional Dutch system, securing just 0.67% of the national vote yields a party one MP. Among the 27 parties contesting the election – which include parties for the over-50s, youth parties, for animals, for a universal basic income, and for sport – as many as 16 may gain entry to parliament.

This high degree of division means that no one party is expected to secure a majority, and Holland has been governed by coalitions – typically composed of four parties in the last few administrations – for over 100 years.

Post-Election Scenarios

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the PVV ends up as the biggest group yet is shut out of government. However, critics and analysts say that first place does not guarantee a role in the coalition and that any coalition with a majority is a democratic outcome.

While the election result is uncertain and coalition talks could take months, political observers suggest that following the most radical administration in its recent history, the future government is likely to be a inclusive alliance led by either the moderate left or moderate right.

Election Day Details

Voting locations, including those in the miniature city Madurodam in The Hague and the Anne Frank house in Amsterdam, opened at 7:30 AM (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9:00 PM. A usually accurate exit poll is expected shortly after closing time.

Once voting concludes, an official negotiator will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in parliament. Prospective coalition members will then negotiate an agreement for the coming term and must face a confidence vote in parliament before taking office.